Beware of Rearview Mirror Data

In these highly volatile times, interpreting data, and what it all means to real estate decisions can be a tricky and very expensive process if you don’t get it right.
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Almost 10 years ago, we started providing local community market updates which gave our subscribers and clients a look at much of the same data we used to provide our best advice as to which direction the market was taking. In the last couple years, the explosion of data has not only allowed us to offer more insight in that area, but also to begin looking at leading inindicator data like page views and showings.
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Many of our competitors attempt to copy this data, in fact this month, one of our local competitors copied our format in The Peninsula Navigator magazine, almost to the letter. While we’re flattered, we also believe that putting forth data is a vital function, and its our belief that nobody does a better job of interpreting what local data trends mean than we do at Ivester Jackson.
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This month, we once again put forth the importance of leading indicators versus “rear view mirror info”. Since late last year, we’ve felt that our local Lake Norman area fundamentals have been improving, and we’ve advised our clients in that light. However, since the July debt ceiling fiasco, activity in our area has been more sporadic and unpredictable. We still have solid pending contracts for this time of year, and lower distressed inventories, but the recurrent drama in DC can cause activity to slow, and we remain concerned that further stalemates and grandstanding will harm the fragile positive momentum of the past 9 months. Our September activity is lagging last year, yet we’ve not seen a decline in pending contracts, so the next 30 to 45 days will be interesting to watch.  Last year’s September was surprisingly solid in terms of activity, and that translated into solid results for the 4th quarter. The jury is out on this year’s 4th and next year’s 1st quarter, and they are likely going to be highly influenced by how our congress deals with the remaining deficit reduction issues. Quick and cohesive resolution with effective deficit reduction policy will have a very positive impact in our view. Bickering and grandstanding, lack of compromise, and ineffective actual reduction will likely have the opposite air max trainer