By: Matthew Paul Brown – Senior Managing Broker, Broker Associate
The fall season clearly has not shown signs of a slowing real estate market in the Charlotte region. Although sales have tightened this seems to be a normal cycle during this time of year. The market has brought the Fed back into play for December on the heels of a very strong payroll report. Fed funds predict a 68% probability of a rate hike in December.
Dilworth Cooling Off
The Dilworth community in May-June experienced 31 closings over $500,000.00 compared to only 9 in October and November to date. This significant decrease is an indicator that the market has certainly cooled off in Dilworth compared to a very strong summer market.
Last year in Dilworth, there were 7 closings in October and November. Ballantyne too, has experienced a decrease in activity compared to May and June. There were 19 sales in the summer months of May and June, to only 6 sales in October and November to date. Ballantyne experienced 7 closings in the same time period last year.
Myers Park and Eastover remain strong
However, Myers Park and Eastover remain very strong and consistent with the summer market. In May and June there were 54 active homes for sale in Myers Park compared to a healthy 49 active homes for sale now. Closings remain consistent with 22 in May and June. To date, in Myers Park we have experienced 17 closings from October to date. Myers Park experienced 20 closings last year during the same period of time.
Eastover neighborhood also remains consistent with the summer market. At the current time, we have 18 homes for sale with 5 closings in the last 60 days. May and June market report reflected 21 homes on the market with only 3 closings. Eastover was up last year in closings 8 to 5 in the same time frame this year. Historically, Myers Park, Dilworth and Eastover have remained strong given their sought after location and proximity to Uptown Charlotte.
Showings remain steady this fall
My real estate team has not slowed down showing property as well. The previews of homes across the Charlotte market remains strong in all price points and close to the number of showings in the summer months of May and June.
The Big Picture
The better than expected jobs report last Friday has moved the probability of a Fed liftoff at the December meeting to 70 percent from below 50 percent previously. We believe that the Fed hikes will be gradual, targeted and patient throughout 2016. We continue to believe that the Charlotte real estate market will move forward in a positive growth pattern. Although volatility remains somewhat elevated, economic indicators suggest that it is way too early for a recession. It seems that some have exaggerated the risks of recession and the housing market should remain on a longer-term uptrend as new construction continues throughout the city.
Residential new construction remains very strong.
Residential new construction remains very strong. Gains in September were led by private residential construction, which was up 1.9%. Private housing construction is up a very strong 17.1% year-over-year and improvements are up 21.6%, near the peak growth rates seen during the housing boom in 2006. (Source BLS, U.S. Trust, CMLS)
Also quite encouraging is the number of leading indicators continue to suggest that the expansion has further staying power. For example, leading indicators of domestic demand in the developed world suggest that growth is poised to remain above trend, furthering reducing unemployment and boosting consumer incomes.
Fortune 500 companies calling Charlotte Home
Major Fortune 500 companies also continue to relocate their business to our region furthering increasing the demand for housing.
As I travel throughout the city of Charlotte, I see a large volumes of new construction, home renovations, and residents supporting local exclusive boutiques and restaurants. It will be interesting to see how retailers fair during the holiday shopping season.