Lake Norman Market Forecast

With all eyes on the Federal Reserve, North Carolina, in general, has proven to be more “downturn resistant” than other areas of the country. The more interest rate-sensitive, entry-level luxury segments just below $1 Million in list price have begun to see fewer showing requests, according to MLS statistics from the last 60 days compared to last year and this year’s spring months. Meanwhile, inventory, particularly in the lower ranges, has just increased in the regional MLS.

The pace at which new listings come to market vs. pending contracts has whipsawed from a negative variance. Where there were once more contracts than new listings, we now have new listings exceeding pending contracts by 500-800 houses per week. At this pace, inventory, which had dropped from 10,000 homes active to 2,000 during Covid, should start trending back up to over 5,000 active homes.

This will eventually domino upward into the luxury segments, although they tend to be driven more by the financial markets. While the financial indices have taken recent hits, they remain well above five and 10-year levels, indicative of significant accumulated wealth that continues to fuel our region’s luxury market. While we anticipate conditions in the upper ranges beginning to display more normal characteristics in terms of days on the market, there continues to be steady showing activity, which thus far is exceeding 2021’s summer levels.

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